2027 Bank Forecasts Compared: ANZ Tips Falls, CBA and Westpac Forecast Growth

The Big Four banks have published their 2027 Australian property market forecasts. They do not agree. ANZ is the only major bank forecasting falls across 2027. CBA and Westpac are forecasting growth. The spread between the most bearish and most bullish bank is nearly 10 percent on the same market. Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down every forecast city by city and identify which prediction the data actually supports.

Why the Banks Keep Getting Property Forecasts Wrong

Bank forecasting models are built on macro assumptions: cash rate movements, employment trends, broad GDP projections. They are structurally unable to account for the local supply and demand dynamics that drive individual market performance. A national model that treats Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, and Brisbane as variations of the same market will be wrong about all of them in ways that compound.

The track record supports this assessment. Major bank property forecasts were materially wrong approximately 74 percent of the time on direction, timing, or magnitude during the last tightening cycle. The 10 percent spread between ANZ and the more optimistic majors on the same 2027 market is not a sign of nuanced analysis. It is evidence that the inputs are uncertain enough to produce almost any output depending on assumptions.

The Rate Cut Trigger and What It Would Do to Sydney and Melbourne

One scenario both the bulls and bears acknowledge: if the RBA cuts rates in the second half of 2026 or early 2027, the impact on Sydney and Melbourne would be immediate and significant. The compression of buyer activity in both cities is partly a function of current assessment rates. A 50 basis point cut changes that calculation materially and could trigger a rapid clearance rate recovery, particularly at the sub-$1.5M Sydney and sub-$1M Melbourne price points where buyer competition is already active.

Automated Valuations: Why Your Property May Be Overvalued by 10 Percent

Automated valuation models used by banks and realestate.com.au are running 5 to 10 percent above actual transaction prices in most markets in 2026. The models lag the market by three to six months and are calibrated against peak-cycle comparable sales. Investors relying on AVM data to assess their equity position or portfolio value are working with figures that overstate their position, which has direct implications for refinancing decisions and portfolio review accuracy.

Published: 20 Aug 2026