50 Properties Analysed: Established Houses vs Off-the-Plan, What the Data Shows

Follio ran a Compare the Pair analysis across 50 randomly selected Australian investment properties. The results are not subtle. Established houses in Brisbane grew 14.3 percent in the analysis period. Off-the-plan apartments in Melbourne went backwards at -1.3 percent. Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty walk through the full dataset and explain what the performance gap means for investors still considering off-the-plan as a strategy in 2026.

The Data: What 50 Properties Actually Showed

The 50-property analysis covers properties across Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, and Adelaide, spanning established houses, townhouses, off-the-plan apartments, and house-and-land packages. The performance spread is significant. Markets and asset types that Follio has consistently flagged as high quality outperformed. Assets that carried the hallmarks of developer-driven investment, high body corporate fees, minimal land content, and locations chosen for development economics rather than buyer demand, underperformed materially.

The headline numbers from Brisbane and Melbourne are the sharpest contrast, but the broader pattern across the dataset is consistent: land content, location quality relative to employment, and rental demand strength are the three variables that explain most of the performance variation.

Why Off-the-Plan Keeps Disappointing Australian Investors

The off-the-plan result in this analysis is not a surprise to Reece and Lachlan. The structural problems with off-the-plan property in Australia have been consistent across multiple cycles: developer margin embedded in the purchase price, high body corporate fees that compress net yield, minimal land content that limits capital growth, and settlement risk in environments where valuations at completion fall below contract price.

In a rising rate environment where the gap between contract price and completion value is widening again, the risk profile of off-the-plan has increased further. The 2026 Budget’s removal of negative gearing on established property has created a short-term incentive for investors to consider new construction. Reece and Lachlan examine whether that incentive is sufficient to overcome the structural performance disadvantage the data shows.

What the Outperforming Assets Had in Common

The top-performing properties in the dataset shared three characteristics: genuine land scarcity in their location, a price point below or at replacement cost at time of purchase, and rental demand driven by employment rather than lifestyle or tourism. These are the same criteria Follio applies in every client acquisition. The 50-property dataset is a live demonstration of why they matter.

Published: 21 Jul 2026