ABS Lending Data, Migration Figures and Cotality: Three Datasets Decoded

Three major data sets landed on the same day. Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break all three down live, starting with the ABS lending figures to June, moving through the latest migration data, and finishing with Cotality’s downturn scenario modelling across every capital city.

ABS Lending Data: Investor Activity Down 8.6 Percent

Investor lending fell 8.6 percent in the June quarter. The post-budget drop is smaller than expected, but the June data only captures half a month of the full Budget fallout. The next quarter’s figures will reflect the complete investor response to the negative gearing changes, and Lachlan’s assessment is that the next reading will be materially worse. The flip side of falling lender volume: banks losing market share creates competitive pressure that may make debt easier to access over the next six to twelve months as lenders compete for fewer borrowers.

Migration Data: Permanent Arrivals Up, Short-Term Down

Permanent arrivals rose 7.8 percent while short-term arrivals fell. The shift toward skilled migration over student and temporary visa holders changes the housing demand profile in a specific way: skilled permanent migrants are more likely to buy or rent family homes in established suburbs than to concentrate in student accommodation markets. That shift supports family home rental demand in the short term while adding to longer-term buyer competition in established markets.

Cotality: How Far Each Market Could Fall and Why Melbourne May Be Near Its Floor

Cotality’s downturn scenario modelling shows each capital city at peak and the percentage correction required to return to historical affordability levels. Melbourne’s data is the most interesting. The city sits closer to its affordability floor than any other major market, while Sydney still has meaningful correction potential before reaching historical norms. The prestige end of both cities is falling four to five times faster than the affordable end, which aligns with the sub-$1M opportunity Follio has been identifying throughout 2026.

Published: 14 Aug 2026