Perth and Brisbane Housing Shortage Update, Mid-2026 Market Analysis

The Australian property market is not moving as one in mid-2026. Sydney is sliding. Melbourne is showing early signs of recovery. Perth and Brisbane are holding firm on structural undersupply that the national news cycle is consistently underreporting. Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the July 2026 data state by state and identify where the supply dynamics are creating genuine investment opportunity.

Perth: Why the Shortage Is Getting Worse, Not Better

Perth’s housing shortage deepened in the June quarter. Building approvals remain significantly below the level required to address the shortfall. Net interstate and overseas migration into Western Australia continues to run above the decade average. Vacancy rates across Perth’s middle ring suburbs have not materially shifted from their sub-1.5 percent lows despite the national sentiment shift following the Budget changes.

The investors who have been waiting for a Perth correction driven by the national mood have not seen it in the data. The fundamentals driving Perth’s performance are structural and are not resolved by sentiment cycles.

Brisbane: Holding on Employment-Led Demand

Brisbane’s property market is holding for different reasons to Perth. Employment growth in Queensland, the ongoing infrastructure investment linked to the 2032 Olympics preparation, and a price point that remains attractive relative to Sydney and Melbourne are keeping buyer activity above the national average. The sub-$600k family home market in Brisbane continues to show rental vacancy below 2 percent in most suburbs.

Melbourne: Early Signs Worth Watching

Melbourne is the most interesting market in Australia in mid-2026. Values are down from their November 2025 peak. But the data underneath the headline is beginning to shift. Auction withdrawal rates have stabilised. Days on market have stopped extending in certain inner and middle ring suburbs. And the price-to-replacement-cost gap is at its widest point since 2012. Reece and Lachlan examine whether these are genuine early recovery signals or a false floor before further softening.

Published: 16 Jul 2026