Senator Andrew Bragg on Australia's Housing Crisis

In this episode of the Follio Property Podcast, hosts Lachlan Delahunty and Reece Beddall sit down with Senator Andrew Bragg to expose the real drivers of Australia’s housing crisis. With annual home construction falling to 170,000 against a required target of 250,000 and 1.5 million arrivals competing for just 500,000 new builds, the conversation covers tax policies driving up rents, 95% loan schemes leaving buyers in negative equity and rising builder insolvencies. Senator Andrew Bragg then shares his solutions.

Key Takeaways & Market Insights

• $80 Billion Spend vs. Housing Shortfall: Labor’s $80 billion housing policy framework includes tax settings projected to reduce overall housing supply by 35,000 units, contributing to annual completion rates falling from historical averages of 200,000 to approximately 170,000 homes.
• Impact of Tax & CGT Changes on Rents: Proposed or enacted restrictions on negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) disincentivise private property investors, directly suppressing rental stock and driving up rental prices across major metropolitan markets.
• First-Home Buyer Pressure & Negative Equity: First-home buyer mortgage applications dropped by 20% to 30%, while 95% LVR government deposit schemes expose thousands of new buyers to negative equity risks.
• National Construction Code Cost Load: The National Construction Code adds approximately $70,000 in regulatory compliance costs to every new build, representing roughly 10% of standard home construction expenses.
• Aligning Migration with Construction: To prevent persistent infrastructure and housing deficits, at current building rates, net overseas migration needs to be targeted at approximately 170,000 to 180,000 people per year.
• Coalition Policy Platform: Senator Andrew Bragg outlines plans to roll back restrictive housing taxes, deregulate complex building code requirements and permit Australians to access superannuation balances for home deposits.

Property Taxes: Fixing the Crisis or Making It Worse?

Senator Andrew Bragg argues that recent property tax increases have damaged market confidence, suppressed housing supply and failed to improve affordability.   

“Well, I think most people found it very confusing that the government was gonna propose almost 80 billion bucks in new taxes on everything to solve a housing crisis problem.” – Andrew Bragg

 “What we’ve seen since the budget is the tax on everything is damaging investment, but the taxes on housing are also damaging housing and property. So you’re seeing fewer home loans to owner-occupiers, you’re seeing higher rents and you’re seeing fewer houses being built.” – Andrew Bragg    

“…negative gearing, CGT changes, they’ve been a disaster.” – Andrew Bragg

“Not only have they introduced the new taxes on capital gains, and also the banning of negative gearing for certain properties, but they’ve also, of course, banned self-managed super funds from borrowing to invest into property.” – Andrew Bragg

Australia’s Supply Crisis: Why We Need a Construction Revolution

Bragg states Australia must cut construction code regulations and lower building costs to boost falling housing supply.   

“We are in a housing supply crisis, so you need to be building about a quarter of a million houses in Australia each year. This year, we’ll be lucky to get 170,000, right? We used to get 200,000. So the taxes alone are gonna suppress supply by 35,000.” – Andrew Bragg 

“…you’ve had 1.5 million people come into the country over the last four years and you’ve only built half a million houses.” – Andrew Bragg   

“And less houses, or fewer houses I should say, means higher rents, less affordability…” – Andrew Bragg   

“…we believe that the cost of building is too high. There are too many taxes. It’s too complicated. It’s too hard. We need to see a supply side revolution to fix the nation’s housing crisis.” – Andrew Bragg     

“So this has been a huge failure of public policy, because all these vested interests have been able to go into a room and effectively make this complicated, and convoluted, and expensive.” – Andrew Bragg

First-Home Buyer Pressure & Negative Equity

Senator Andrew Bragg highlights that first-home buyer applications are down sharply, warning that 95% loan deposit schemes are exposing vulnerable new buyers to severe negative equity risks.

“First home buyers’ applications are down 20, 30%, depending on where they are.” – Reece Beddall  

“A lot of these first home buyers now have negative equity too, pushing our most vulnerable into negative gearing.” – Andrew Bragg  

“For a government to go around and peddle 95% loans to everyone, I just think it’s reckless.” – Andrew Bragg

Future Predictions & Market Outlooks

• Persisting Housing Shortfall: Annual new home completions are expected to remain significantly below demand (projected around 170,000 versus the required 250,000 homes per year), widening the supply deficit.
• Ongoing Upward Pressure on Rents: Continued high migration rates combined with suppressed housing construction and reduced investor activity will drive rental prices higher across major markets.
• Escalating Building Costs: Construction costs will remain elevated unless regulatory compliance expenses under the National Construction Code are cut and union-driven premiums on building sites are addressed.
• Risks of Growing Negative Equity: Unchecked high-LVR (95%) deposit schemes during market downturns risk pushing thousands of vulnerable first-home buyers into negative equity positions.

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